“SETTING PRIORITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE “
FOR GETTING CLOSER TO EUROPEAN UNION
By Feyza YILMAZ,2012
Climate change can be identified by a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (11).
Climate change is at once a problem of development and also a symptom of ‘skewed’ development and it is real and without urgent action it will devastate life on earth. There is evidence that some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences, including increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. So GHG (Green House Gas) emissions associated with the provision of energy services are a major cause of climate change.
A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events (11).
Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism.
One of the impact of environmental crises caused by GHG is an dangerously increasing of global average temparature. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concluded that “Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”(9).
The global average temperature has increased by 0.76°C (0.57°C to 0.95°C) between 1850 to 1899 and 2001 to 2005, and the warming trend has increased signifi cantly over the last 50 years (10).
To avoid adverse impacts of such climate change, global average temperature rises must be limited to no more than 2°C above. In order to achieve this, GHG concentrations would need to be stabilized in the range of 445 to 490 ppm CO2eq in the atmosphere. The Governments should therefore be heard in global discussions around environmental assessments. To be environmentally benign, energy services must be provided with low environmental impacts and low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased. Loss estimates are lowerbound estimates because many impacts, such as loss of human lives, cultural heritage, and ecosystem services, are difficult to value and monetize, and thus they are poorly reflected in estimates of losses.
Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and adaptation approaches.
All societies require energy services to meet basic human needs (e.g., lighting, cooking, space comfort,mobility, communication). For sustainable evironment, delivery of energy services needs to be secure and have low environmental impacts. Renewable energy is the best option to mitigate climate change.
By developing renewable energies we can place the world on a path to sustainable clean energy, cut emissions of greenhouse gases and benefit the environment.
Some numbers from Rio+20 (1)
of global energy supply comes from renewable energy sources Keeping Track of our Changing Environment: From Rio to Rio+20, UNEP 66%
of all new electricity generated in sub-Saharan African after 1998 has come from renewable sources UNEP Finance Initiative
of the world’s fish stocks are overexploited, depleted orrecovering from depletion UNEP Green Economy in a Blue World
estimated child deaths globally per annum due to environmental hazards. — UNEP Annual Report 13.1 billion
tonnes of waste — 20 per cent more than present levels — is projected will be produced in the world by 2050 — UNEP Annual Report 85%
of rural population in Sub-Saharan Africa relies on biomass for energy. — UNEP Finance Initiative 2012
increase in solar energy supply since 1992 — Keeping Track of
our Changing Environment:
From Rio to Rio+20, UNEP
2. CHANGES IN CLIMATE, THEIR IMPACTS AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Since the industrial revolution started around 200 years ago, mankind has been burning fossil fuels. These are under ground stores of energy such as coal, oil and natural gas which were formed from the remains of dead plants and animals over millions of years. Burning fossil fuels releases large amounts of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Carbon Dioxide is one of the most significant greenhouse gases and this man-made emission increases the greenhouse effect and disrupts the natural balance of the earth’s climate (2).
Figure 1.The most important greenhouse gases
Figure 2. Where the most important greenhouse gases come from
According to the Department for Transport, the transport sector produces about one quarter of the UK’s total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas. Road transport contributes 85% of this, with passenger cars accounting for around one half of all carbon emitted by the transport sector. For this reason, low-carbon vehicles and fuels offer opportunities to radically reduce the environmental impact of road transport – both locally in terms of reduced air pollution emissions and lower noise and globally in terms of climate change (5).
Table 1. Pollutants (5)
Exhaust Constituent Nature and Effects
Nitrogen (N2) No adverse effects
Oxygen (O2) No adverse affects
Water (H2O) No adverse affects
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Non-toxic gas, but contributes to climate change.
Carbon Monoxide (CO) Results from incomplete combustion of fuel. CO reduces the ability of blood to carry oxygen and can cause headaches, respiratory problems and, at high concentrations, even death.
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Produced in any combustion process. NOx emissions are oxidised in the atmosphere and contribute to acid rain. They also react with hydrocarbons to produce photochemical oxidants, which can harm plants and animals.
Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Sulphur occurs naturally in the crude oil from which petrol and diesel are refined. It forms acids on combustion leading to acid rain and engine corrosion. It also contributes to the formation of ozone and of particulate matter. Sulphur can also adversely affect the performance of catalytic converters.
Hydrocarbons (HC) HCs are emitted from vehicle exhausts as unburnt fuel and also through evaporation from the fuel tank, from the nozzle when you fill up and also at stages through the fuel supply chain. They react with NOx in sunlight to produce photochemical oxidants (including ozone), which irritate the eyes and throat.
Benzene (C6H6) Naturally occurring in small quantities (less than 2%) in petrol and diesel, Benzene is emitted from vehicle exhausts as unburnt fuel and also through evaporation from the fuel system. Benzene is toxic and carcinogenic. Long-term exposure has been linked with leukaemia.
Lead (Pb) Lead accumulates in body systems and is known to interfere with the normal production of red blood cells. Following the introduction of unleaded petrol and withdrawal of leaded petrol lead is essentially eliminated as an exhaust product.
Particulates (PM) Particulate matter is partly burned fuel associated mainly with diesel engines. PM10s are very small particles that can pass deep into the lungs causing respiratory complaints.
Only 25 per cent of the world’s waste is recovered or recycled. The world market for waste is worth around $410 billion a year. In Brazil, 95 per cent of all aluminum cans and 55 per cent of all polyethylene bottles are recycled, and half of all paper and glass is recovered. This generates a value of almost $2 billion and avoids 10 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year. Waste management and recycling employ more than 500,000 people in Brazil (15).
Metrics to quantify social and economic impacts (thus used to define extreme impacts) may include, among others:
• Impacts on infrastructure and lifelines
• Impacts on ecosystem services
• Impacts on crops and agricultural systems
• Impacts on coping capacity and need for external assistance
• Human casualties and injuries
• Number of permanently or temporarily displaced people
• Number of directly and indirectly affected persons
• Impacts on properties, measured in terms of numbers of buildings
damaged or destroyed
• Impacts on disease vectors
• Impacts on psychological well being and sense of security
• Financial or economic loss (including insurance loss)
In the scientific literature, several aspects are considered in the definition and analysis of climate extremes(14).
• Weather and Climate Variables: Temperature, Precipitations, Winds
• Phenomena Related to Weather and Climate Extremes: Monsoons, El Niño and other Modes of Variability, Tropical Cyclones, Extratropical Cyclones,
• Impacts on Physical Environment: Droughts, Floods, Extreme Sea level and Coastal Impacts, Other Physical impacts, Sand and Dust Storms.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
Climate change is directly related with Greenhouse gases (GHG). Greenhouse gases are emitted by certain economic activities such as power generation, transportation and industry. We need to design effective policies and should integrate all efforts to stop climate change and promote green economy. Under current strategies concentrations of GHGs continue to increase.
Major changes in public behaviour and production and production methods is needed to achieve GHG mitigation. There are multiple means for lowering GHG emissions from the energy system, while still providing desired energy services. One of them is reducing the carbon insensity of energy used (renewable energies).
By developing renewable energies we can place the world on a path to sustainable clean energy, cut emissions of greenhouse gases and benefit the environment. Renewable energies provide countries with the possibility of achieving a more sustainable energy mix while preserving the environment and reducing the impact of fuel price volatility.
Trying to move very quickly can be very costly. Industry and energy sectors aren’t suitable for adaptation so quickly. But the transport sector may be the most applicable area to start. Only small behavioural changes in automabi or fuel use in the short run, may be more efficient for climate change imigation.
Immediate adjustments of the regulations should be done by goverment because of the new technologies would likely be expensive. Reducing GHGs may achieved by;
. Shifting to low C fuels,
. Greater use of renewable sources by promoting,
. Controlling and obtaining reduction of leaks from gas plants,
. Adjusting trade permits,
. Land use planning (for such as bioenergy uses),
. Setting orginized environmental organs,
. Increasing public awereness,
.Seeting education-training programs for public, students,
. Adjusting taxes,
. Signing strategic collaborations with EU countries to benefits their experience on this field to reducing adaptation period. Such this partnership also may provides external funds for researching new Technologies.
4. GLOBAL ASPECTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
Renewable energy is any form of energy from solar, geophysical or biological sources that is replenished by natural processes at a rate that equals or exceeds its rate of use. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) do not fall under this definition, as they are not replenished within a time frame that is short relative to their rate of utilization. The primary reason to encourage renewable energy include emission reductions to mitigate climate change.
According to the REN21, a nongovernmental organization the annual production of ethanol increased to 1.6 EJ (76 billion litres) by the end of 2009 and biodiesel production increased to 0.6 EJ (17 billion litres). Of the approximately 300 GW of new electricity generating capacity added globally over the two-year period from 2008 to 2009, 140 GW came from RE additions. Collectively, developing countries hosted 53% of global RE power generation capacity in 2009. Under most conditions, increasing the share of RE in the energy mix will require policies to stimulate changes in the energy system. Government policy, the declining cost of many renewable energy technologies, changes in the prices of fossil fuels and other factors have supported the continuing increase in the use of RE. These developments suggest the possibility that RE could play a much more prominent role in both developed and developing countries over the coming decades (13).
It is also estimated that renewable energy accounted for 12.9% of the total 492 EJ of primary energy supply in 2008 (.Fig. 3) and the largest contributor of this 12.9% renewable energy was biomass (10.2%) (Fig4) (IEA, 2010a). In 2008, RE contributed approximately 19% of global electricity supply (16% hydropower, 3% other RE), biofuels contributed 2% of global (9) .
Figure 3. Shares of energy sources in total global primary energy supply in 2008 (492 EJ)
Figure 4. Shares of Renewable energy (12.9%)
Road transport fuel supply, and traditional biomass (17%), modern biomass (8%), solar thermal and geothermal energy (2%) together fuelled 27% of the total global demand for heat. The contribution of RE to primary energy supply varies substantially by country and region. Scenarios of future low greenhouse gas futures consider RE and RE in combination with nuclear, and coal and natural gas with carbon capture and storage.
The largest renewable energy contributor is biomass with the majority of the biomass fuel. The contribution of RE to primary energy supply must be obtained. Deployment of RE has been increasing rapidly in recent years.
The theoretical potential of RE is much greater than all of the energy that is used by all the economies on Earth.
Recent studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for renewable energy is substantially higher than both current and projected future global energy demand.
The contribution of RE to primary energy supply varies substantially by country and region. China is now the leading producer, user and exporter of solar thermal panels for hot water production, and has been rapidly expanding its production of solar PV, most of which is exported, and has recently become the leading global producer. In terms of capacity, in 2008, China was the largest investor in thermal water heating and third in bioethanol production (12).
More than 60% of primary energy is supplied by hydropower and geothermal energy in Iceland (6).
Twenty-four countries utilize geothermal heat to produce electricity. The share of geothermal energy in national electricity production is above 15% in El Salvador, Kenya, the Philippines and Iceland (3).
Brazil relies heavily on and is the second-largest producer of bioethanol, which it produces from sugarcane (6,8).
Brazil, New Zealand and Canada also have a high share of hydroelectricity in total electricity: 80, 65 and 60%, respectively (7).
5. POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF GREEN ECONOMY
Renewable energy can open opportunities for addressing multiple environmental, social and economic development dimensions, including adaptation to climate change, secure energy supply concerns, the reduction of environmental and health impacts and employment creation.
5.1. Social and Economic Development
For electricity, small and standalone configurations of RE Technologies such as PV, hydropower and bioenergy can often meet energy needs of rural communities more cheaply than fossil fuel alternatives such as diesel generators.
5.1.1. Employment Creation
Nearly 40 per cent of the world’s 211 million unemployed people (more than 80 million) are aged 15-24.
The creation of (new) employment opportunities is seen as a positive long-term effect of renewable energy because it is the focus on new technologies which are introducing less polluting.
The green economy will promote different sorts of investment;
The recycling industry in Brazil, China and the USA alone employs at least 12 million people.
Renewable energies are a source of diversified economic growth and job creation: more than 3,5 million people are already employed in renewable energy industries.
5.2. Energy Security
Current energy supplies are dominated by fossil fuels (petroleum and natural gas) whose price volatility can have significant impacts, in particular for oil-importing developing countries .
5.3. Reduction of Healt Impacts
Alongside the commonly known CO2 production pathways from fossil fuel combustion, natural gas production (and transportation) and coal mines are a source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and uncontrolled coal mine fires release significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. Long-term exposure to these smoke increases the risk of a child developing an acute respiratory infection and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality.
Non-combustion-based RE power generation technologieshave the potential to signifi cantly reduce local and regional air pollution and lower associated health impacts compared to fossilbased power generation.
6. AN APROACH FOR SETTING PRIORITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
According to the all information given before, it’s so clearly that climate change is a very serious and urgent subject for global life. But unfourtunately in Turkey neither the policy maker nor public have enough attention on the importance of the climate change. We need access to advanced technologies to adapt to the consequences of a changing climate and yet at the same time achieve better economic growth and social development without adding to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There are significant barriers to the rapid adoption of such technologies, including high costs, import and export restrictions, inadequate government policies and regulations, and a lack of experience and knowledge to operate and maintain the technologies.
A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of the both conventional and green energy systems must done immediately as well as all associated risks, costs and their contribution to sustainable development.
The theoretical potential for RE greatly exceeds all the energy that is used by all economies on Earth and the studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for RE is substantially higher than both current and projected future global energy demand.
The technical potential for direct solar energy is the highest among the reneweable energy sources, but substantial technical potential exists for all forms of reneweable energy such as wind energy, bioenergy, geothermal energy, ocean energy.
Recent years have seen many extreme events including the extremely hot summer in parts of Europe in 2003 and 2010, and the intense North Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005.
While there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gases have likely caused changes in some types of extremes, there is no simple answer to the question of whether the climate, in general, has become more or less extreme. Both the terms ‘more extreme’ and ‘less extreme’ can be defined in different ways, resulting in different characterizations of observed changes in extremes. Additionally, from a physical climate science perspective it is difficult to devise a comprehensive metric that encompasses all aspects of extreme behavior in the climate.
In this proposal two means of reducing GHGs for reducing impacts on the climate change, include setting priorities for policymakers and for public will be investigated.
7.1. Setting Priorities for Policymakers
Market failures, up-front costs, financial risk, lack of data as well as capacities and public and institutional awareness, perceived social norms and value structures, present infrastructure and current energy market regulation, inappropriate intellectual property laws, trade regulations, lack of amenable policies and programs, lower power of reneweable energy and land use conflicts are amongst existing barriers and issues to expanding the use of reneweable energy.
Our government should introduce a variety of reneweable energy policies, motivated by a variety of factors, to address these various components of reneweable energy integration into the energy system. These policies drives escalated growth in reneweable energy technologies in recent years and can be categorized as fiscal incentives, public finance and regulation. They typically address two market failures:
1) the external cost of GHG emissions are not priced at an appropriate level
2) Reneweable energy creates benefits to society beyond those captured by the innovator, leading to underinvestment in such efforts.
In the transportation sector, reneweable energy fuel mandates or blending requirements are key drivers in the development of most modern biofuel industries. Policies have influenced the development of an international biofuel trade. One important challenge will be finding a way for reneweable energy and carbon pricing policies to interact such that they take advantage of synergies rather than trade-offs. Reneweable energy technologies can play a greater role if they are implemented in conjunction with ‘enabling’ policies.
A pathway proposal is given below in order to achieve ambitious climate protection goals. Of course this pathway can be developed with different ways. This is a improvable framework according to the prospects.
1. Understanding the role of renewable energy in providing energy services in a sustainable manner. Governments remain crucial actors for environmental issues at local, regional and national scale in mitigating climate change.
a. Identification of renewable resources and available technologies and impacts of climate change on these resources,
b. Assessment of local and regional impacts on ecosystems and the environment,
c. To afford to support research, development and innovation of ner renewable, low-carbon techonologies with public funds,
d. Regional/local renewable energy resource assessments,
e. Future impacts of climate change on RE technical potential,
f. Competition for RE resources, such as biomass, between RE technologies and other human activities and needs.
2. Changing regulations to achieve integration of renewable energy into conventional energy systems (Regulation: rule to guide or control conduct of those to whom it applies). This also means to adapt the EU regulation for getting closer to the EU by changing them with EU’s.
3. Identification of economic and environmental costs (may be capacity building, technology transfer), benefits, risks and impacts of deployment,
Identification of costs of:
*supporting development, research and innovation technologies by funds,
*new investments for renewable energy,
*changing convential energy systems with new technologies
*transfering new technology information
*educating workers will work for renewable energy technologies
*giving information to the public for awereness and for public attention
*international collaborations to visit for getting experience and information from renewable energy experienced countries/institions
4. Assessment of Socioeconomic aspects of renewable energy
a. Understanding and methods to address public acceptance concerns of local communities
Hence, social acceptance is an important element in the need to rapidly and significantly scale up RE deployment to help meet climate change mitigation goals.
5. Mitigation potentials and costs,
6. Identification of barriers
A barrier means “any obstacle to reaching a goal, adaptation or mitigation potential that can be overcome or attenuated by a policy, programme or measure”. Identification of the main barriers and issues to using renewable energy for climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development is very important for the achievement of the aimed goals for the climate change. Identification and taking precautions are very important to reach goals in time.
The various barriers may categorized as:
* market failures and economic barriers (Carbon taxes, public support)
*information and awareness barriers (Energy standards, information campaigns, technical training) ,
* socio-cultural barriers (Improved processes for land use planning)
As large-scale implementation can only be successfully undertaken with the understanding and support of the public. To overcome such barriers may require dedicated communication efforts.
* institutional and policy barriers (revised technical regulations, international support for technology transfer).
7. Creating a framework for financing and implementation
Some policy elements are more effective and efficient in rapidly designed to increase the use of renewable technology but there is no one-size-fits-all policy, and the mix of policies and their design and implementation vary regionally and depend on prevailing conditions. Different policies or combinations of policies can be more effective and efficient depending on factors. So before identification of the details of policy, first the key policy elements which may be changed regionally should be determined. We have to obtain key policiy elements for Turkey.
There is now considerable experience with several types of policies designed to increase the use of renewable technology. Germany and Spain (among others) have used a demand-pull mechanism through FITs that assured producers of RE electricity sufficiently high rates for a long and certain time period. Germany is the world’s leading installer of solar PV, and in 2008 had the largest installed capacity of wind turbines (REN21, 2009). So a collaboration between Germany and Turkey would be very efficent in several ways of using renewable energy Technologies. A common strategy plan may be maintain to increase the use of renewable energy sources not only for solar and wind energy but also other renewable energy systems for mitigating of climate change.
Public finance: public support for which a financial return is expected (loans, equity) or financial liability is incurred (guarantee)
8. As a certain solution, maintaning an “Alternative Energy Institution” (just like “Turkish Atomic Energy Authority”) is highly recommended. TAEA has ıts own rules, this provides to move independently and quickly. If an Alternative Energy Institution constitutes with ıts own budget, all researches, investments, collaborations could be maintain more easily.
9. Europen Union needs Turkey in order to secure its energy supply and mitigate climate change. Turkey is a transit country between gas and oil reserves and EU. Also Turkey needs EU in order to benefit from experiences on renewable energy Technologies. So a collaboration between Turkey and a EU membered country would be very efficient. Both countries ca get benefits from this cooperation on learning applications/techniques used by the other country and getting experiences on all climate change processes. Technical visit should be orginized.
10. Some serious academic Works with oriented practises attended by policy makers would be organised by this international collaboration such as “An International Climate Change Congress”. IPM and luminaries from EU world of politics, business and civil societies may reach policy makers, so do policy makers.
We need all actors to work together in an efficient way if we want to reach the global goals we need in order to address current unsustainable trends and environmental threats.
7.2. Public Awareness
Governments have a critical leadership role in mainstreaming and practising sustainability. However information that people need to better understand the state of their environment and to respond to changes in it.
Public information bulletins on visiul medias are most effective when complemented by other media instruments, particularly social media that simultaneously enhance attention. Together visiul and social media create a positive feedback cycle, inducing private sector investment.
Hence, social acceptance is an important element in the need to rapidly and significantly scale up RE deployment to help meet climate change mitigation goals.
How can we best use advances in information and communication Technologies to generate an view on the state of the environment?
There is a growing a market opportunity based on green technology and our goverment should support it.
To create the public agenda, all the scientific studies and research in simple language understood by the entire public should be done with media campaigns to attract attention. Some associations used celebrities in media advertisements to promote their activities before. Many women’s organizations also used celebrity faces in order to create the agenda for the physical abuse of women. The same way may use to make public awereness fort he climate change.
If we won’t inform our public and make them aware of the environment, we can’t discuss the result of this later (16).
The most imortant information should be given to the public via seminar, commercials in favour of any of these alternative fuels, as each has its own particular advanteges and disadvantages.
• Petrol engines are less efficient than diesel engines and therefore contribute more to the fuels. So fuel expenses may rise. They also have higher CO2, CO and HC emissions than diesel. It means more pollution.
• The greater the fuel-efficiency means more produced CO2 into the air. This is a green house gaz which is the main reasonof the climate change.
• More cars mean more polluted air, more health probles and more expenses.
• Conventional cars burn oil-based fuels and contribute directly. The aklternatives shold be considered before buying.
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